7.7 Turnout (2)

The rational turnout problem has long been associated with rational choice models.

• Given that the chances of being pivotal or decisive in any election are so small and that voting has costs, why would anyone vote;

• Riker and Ordeshook (1968), among the frst to examine the turnout problem, suggest that people believe in a duty to vote. Empirical evidence supports this;

• Those who say that there is a duty to vote are both more likely to vote and less likely to be deterred by marginal increases in the costs of voting, such as bad weather.